Showing posts with label Finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Finance. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

The Secret of Risk vs Return

One of the dirty secret is a simple one, and it derives mostly from investor behavior.  You don’t always get more return on average if you take more risk.  The amount of added return declines with each unit of additional risk, and eventually turns negative at high levels of risk.  The graph above is a vague approximate representation of how this process works.
Why is this so?  Two related reasons:
  1. People are not very good at estimating the probability of success for ventures, and it gets worse as the probability of success gets lower.  People overpay for chancy lottery ticket-like investments, because they would like to strike it rich.  This malady affect men more than women, on average.
  2. People get to investment ideas late.  They buy closer to tops than bottoms, and they sell closer to bottoms than tops.  As a result, the more volatile the investment, the more money they lose in their buying and selling.  This malady also affects men more than women, on average.

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

The Golden Rule? Thoughts on gold as an investment

 
Paraphrasing Winston Churchill, gold is a "riddle, wrapped up in a mystery inside an enigma", at least as far as I am concerned. I don't understand what moves the gold price and I have never held gold in my portfolio. That does not mean, however, that I am not fascinated by the price of gold and immune from its movements. That was brought home last week, when the price of gold dropped by 9% on April 15, 2013, the biggest one day drop in thirty years. Not only did the prices of other precious metals (silver dropped 12%) and industrial metals drop, but stock prices took a tumble as well. While the attention has focused on the price drop in recent days, gold has had a good run over the last decade.

The nominal and inflation-adjusted prices of gold have soared in the last decade, and at the end of 2012, the nominal price was at an all time high of 1664 and the inflation-adjusted price was close to its previous high set at the end of the 1970s. The big question that has been debated in recent days is whether gold will continue to drop in the coming days. More generally, is gold is under or over priced? With my limited understanding of gold, I decided to give it a shot.

Monday, May 20, 2013

Highly Effective Business Performance Management Manifesto In An Uncertainty Age


Di bulan Oktober 2008, Peter Oppenheim - CFO Apple berkomentar "Visibilitas semakin rendah dan forecasting (berbeda dengan meramal dalam persepsi sehari-hari) merupakan tantangan besar", yang sebenarnya mungkin merupakan bahasa halus dari,"Kita sama sekali tidak memiliki ide memadai tentang apa yang akan terjadi esok hari."

Di tahun 2010, CFO UPS - Kurt Kuehn melaporkan," Normalnya kita sangat berobesesi untuk membuat perencanaan yang komprehensif dan akurat, namun dengan kejadian resesi ekonomi 2008 kami memandang perencanaan adalah sebuah upaya membuang-buang waktu."

Apple dan UPS adalah sebagian dari raksaasa manajemen yang tersistem dengan baik yang kita kenal. Mereka memiliki dan telah mengimplementasikan integrated framework yang sangat komprehensif dalam membuat perencanaan maupun forecasting. Namun mereka juga memiliki pengalaman berharga bagaimana mereka berjuang bersama raksasa-raksasa dunia korporasi lainnya dalam menghadapi hantaman badai krisis 2008. Bahkan banyak dari nama besar korporasi berjatuhan seperti, Lehman Brothers, Bear & Stearns, General Motors dan Chryslers adalah sebagian dari mereka yang berjatuhan. 

Mereka yang berguguran sudah tidak asing dengan yang namanya Business Performance Management (BPM framework) yang mumpuni. Bertahun-tahun mereka terus menerus mengembangkan integrated system yang tak kecil memakan biaya dan upaya. Namun dengan terimbasnya mereka dengan krisis 2008 menunjukkan hasil dari upaya mereka selama ini adalah nihil besar.

Harapan besar dengan pengembangan integrated framework adalah adanya agilitas, memberi perbedaan besar dalam pengambilan keputusan dan perencanaan, dan fleksibilitas dalam meningkatkan kinerja bisnis mereka menjadi pupus.

Sunday, May 19, 2013

Sekilas tentang 'Stock Picking'




Memilih saham bagi saya adalah pekerjaan yang menyenangkan sekaligus mendebarkan. Dengan bantuan screener dari berbagai site finansial saya akan mendapatkan beberapa saham yang menarik. Walaupun saya telah memiliki metode filtering yang selama ini saya pakai, saya tidak menutup diri untuk mencoba menemukan metode-metode baru.


Filter standar saya biasanya adalah mencari saham-saham yang kuat dan secara historis tumbuh dengan konsisten. Biasanya dengan kriteria tersebut dan menambahkan sedikit polesan di sana sini saya akan mendapatkan saham yang memberikan kontribusi cukup besar bagi pertumbuhan portfolio saya.


Walaupun begitu, terkadang saya mencoba mencari saham-saham dengan kriteria tertentu yang berbeda dari yang biasa saya lakukan. Salah satu contohnya, saya ingin mencari saham-saham yang bisnisnya berpotensi untuk turnaround. Karena selama beberapa tahun terakhir bisnisnya memburuk, saham-saham seperti ini tidak akan masuk ke dalam kriteria standar saya. Namun jika benar-benar berhasil untuk melakukan turnaround, saham-saham seperti itu akan memberikan keuntungan yang besar. 

Monday, May 13, 2013

The Financial Modelers' Manifesto


Emanuel Derman & Paul Wilmott have written a thought provoking article about the state of financial models and its implications with the global financial crisis of 2008: 

A spectre is haunting markets – the spectre of illiquidity, frozen credit, and the failure of financial models. 

Beginning with the 2007 collapse in subprime mortgages, financial markets have shifted to new regimes characterized by violent movements, epidemics of contagion from market to market, and almost unimaginable anomalies (who would have ever thought that swap spreads to Treasuries could go negative?). Familiar valuation models have become increasingly unreliable. Where is the risk manager that has not ascribed his losses to a once-in-a-century tsunami? 

To this end, we have assembled in New York City and written the following manifesto. 

Manifesto 

In finance we study how to manage funds – from simple securities like dollars and yen, stocks and bonds to complex ones like futures and options, subprime CDOs and credit default swaps. We build financial models to estimate the fair value of securities, to estimate their risks and to show how those risks can be controlled. How can a model tell you the value of a security? And how did these models fail so badly in the case of the subprime CDO market? 

Physics, because of its astonishing success at predicting the future behavior of material objects from their present state, has inspired most financial modeling. Physicists study the world by repeating the same experiments over and over again to discover forces and their almost magical mathematical laws. Galileo dropped balls off the leaning tower, giant teams in Geneva collide protons on protons, over and over again. If a law is proposed and its predictions contradict experiments, it’s back to the drawing board. The method works. The laws of atomic physics are accurate to more than ten decimal places. 

Monday, April 15, 2013

Reksadana Indeks Versus ETF

ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) merupakan wahana investasi yang relatif baru di negeri kita ini. Produk ETF yang ada saat ini ada dua, yaitu ABF IBI Fund dan Premier ETF LQ-45. ABF IBI Fund menggunakan portfolio indeks obligasi sebagai patokan sedangkan Premier ETF LQ-45 menggunakan indeks LQ-45 sebagai indeks patokan. 

Sebelum ETF muncul, kita telah terlebih dahulu mengenal reksa dana indeks, yaitu Danareksa Indeks Syariah. Reksa dana ini menggunakan indeks JII (Jakarta Islamic Index) sebagai acuan. Baik ETF maupun reksa dana indeks berusaha menirukan kinerja dari indeks acuannya. Lalu apa perbedaan keduanya?

 Reksa Dana Indeks 
Reksa dana indeks adalah reksa dana yang portfolionya terdiri atas saham-saham penyusun indeks tertentu. Proporsi kepemilikan saham oleh reksa dana indeks sebisa mungkin disamakan dengan komposisi indeks acuan tersebut sehingga diharapkan kinerjanya akan menyamai kinerja indeks acuan. 

Proses pembentukan reksa dana indeks sama dengan reksa dana pada umumnya. Mari kita perhatikan gambar berikut:




Manajer investasi akan membeli saham-saham di pasar sampai dengan komposisinya menyamai indeks. Tentu saja dalam perjalanannya nanti akan terjadi sedikit perbedaan kinerja dengan indeks acuan. Perbedaan ini disebut dengan tracking error. Setiap beberapa bulan sekali, manajer investasi akan menata ulang portfolionya untuk meminimalisasi tracking error ini. Manajer investasi kemudian menjual membeli unit penyertaan kepada para investor. 

Pembelian reksa dana indeks sama dengan reksa dana pada umumnya. Kita dapat membelinya di agen penjual reksa dana atau langsung ke manajer investasinya. Begitu juga jika kita ingin menjual unit reksa dana kita. NAB reksa dana indeks dapat kita lihat setelah berakhirnya sesi perdagangan harian. 

Karena reksa dana indeks memerlukan pengawasan yang relatif sedikit, maka management fee untuk MI biasanya cukup rendah. Untuk Danareksa Indeks Syariah, management fee tahunan maksimal 0.3% dari NAB. Biaya ini jauh lebih murah dibandingkan dengan biaya pengelolaan reksa dana saham biasa yang bisa mencapai 2.5% per tahun. 

 ETF 
Pada tulisan ini, saya hanya akan membahas mengenai ETF saham karena memiliki underlying portfolio yang saham dengan reksa dana indeks yaitu saham. 

Hampir sama dengan reksa dana indeks, ETF berusaha untuk mereplikasi indeks tertentu agar kinerjanya sama dengan indeks acuan tersebut. Pembentukan ETF berbeda dengan reksa dana indeks. Mari kita perhatikan gambar berikut: 



Dealer partisipan akan membeli saham-saham di pasar dengan komposisi yang saham dengan indeks acuan sampai dengan jumlah tertentu. Saham-saham yang telah dibeli ini kemudian ditukarkan dengan unit kreasi yang dibuat oleh manajer investasi ETF. Setelah memiliki unit kreasi yang dimiliki oleh dealer partisipan dapat disimpan sendiri atau dijual ke pasar setelah dipecah-pecah dalam bentuk unit penyertaan. Satuan penjualan di pasar adalah lot (500 unit penyertaan). 

Jadi, perbedaan pertama antara ETF dengan reksa dana indeks adalah bagaimana cara pembentukannya. Pada ETF, yang berhak untuk bertransaksi dengan manajer investasi hanyalah dealer partisipan yang sering disebut juga dengan market maker. 

Sama halnya dengan reksa dana indeks, pengelolaan ETF juga bersifat pasif sehingga management fee nya pun relatif rendah jika dibandingkan dengan reksa dana saham pada umumnya. 

Perbedaan kedua adalah pihak yang menjual dan membeli unit penyertaan. Investor ETF hanya dapat membeli dan menjual unit penyertaan dari investor lain melalui pasar sekunder. Proses transaksinya sama persis dengan transaksi saham. Jadi saat membeli atau menjual unit penyertaan, kita tidak dikenai subscribe atau redeem fee melainkan komisi broker yang jumlanya bervariasi antara 0.2%-0.3% untuk pembelian dan 0.3%-0.4% untuk penjualan. Kesimpulannya untuk dapat berinvestasi di ETF, kita harus terdaftar sebagai nasabah suatu sekuritas. 

Perbedaan ketiga adalah penetapan harga unit penyertaan. Jika pada reksa dana indeks, NAV nya ditentukan berdasarkan nilai wajar dari aset yang dimilikinya, maka pada ETF, harganya tidak harus sama dengan NAV nya. Di samping itu, harga ETF akan diupdate secara kontinyu selama perdagangan di pasar berlangsung. Hal ini berbeda dengan reksa dana indeks di mana NAV nya hanya dapat kita ketahui 1 kali setiap harinya yaitu saat perdagangan di pasar telah berakhir. Harga unit penyertaan ETF ditentukan oleh transaksi antar investor di pasar. 

Perbedaan keempat adalah periode settlement. Jika kita ingin membeli reksa dana indeks, kita harus menyediakan dananya terlebih dahulu. Jika kita membeli ETF, kita tidak harus memiliki dananya saat itu juga, akan tetapi diberi waktu hingga 3 hari setelah transaksi (T+3). Adanya perbedaan ini disebabkan karena ETF diperlakukan sama dengan saham yang memiliki periode settlement 3 hari. 
Walaupun terdapat beberapa perbedaan, ETF dan reksa dana indeks memiliki persamaan: 
  
  • Portfolionya mengacu pada suatu indeks tertentu 
  • Biaya pengelolaan yang relatif rendah 

Lalu mana yang kita pilih?Jika kita adalah investor pasif, maka baik ETF maupun reksa dana indeks sama saja. Namun jika kita adalah investor aktif, maka ETF merupakan pilihan yang lebih baik karena dapat diperdagangkan secara real-time tanpa harus menunggu berakhirnya sesi perdagangan. Baik ETF maupun reksa dana menawarkan satu keunggulan yaitu memiliki kinerja yang menyamai indeks acuan dengan biaya pengelolaan rendah. 

Namun ada hal lain yang harus kita perhatikan. Saat ini volume perdagangan ETF sangat rendah sehingga mengakibatkan lebarnya spread (perbedaan) antara harga bid dan offer di pasar. FYI, ’bid’ adalah harga yang kita dapatkan jika ingin menjual ETF saat itu juga sedangkan ’offer’ adalah harga yang kita dapatkan jika kita ingin membeli ETF saat itu juga. 

Selain itu, karena tidak ada keharusan bahwa harga unit penyertaan ETF sama dengan NAV nya, maka terkadang terdapat perbedaan yang cukup besar antara harga dengan NAV nya. Jika kita jeli, maka kita dapat memanfaatkannya dengan membeli ETF jika harganya di bawah NAB dan menjualnya jika harganya lebih tinggi dari NAV nya. FYI, NAV ETF seharusnya sama dengan nilai indeks acuannya. 

Hal yang serupa dapat pula dilakukan oleh dealer partisipan untuk menambah keuntungan. Saat harga ETF lebih tinggi daripada indeks acuan, maka dealer partisipan akan membeli saham-saham penyusun portfolio ETF di pasar dan kemudian menjual unit kreasi yang dimilikinya kepada manajer investasi ETF. Demikian pula jika harga ETF lebih rendah daripada indeks acuannya, maka dealer partisipan dapat menjual saham-saham penyusun portfolio ETF dan menggunakan dana yang didapat untuk membeli unit kreasi dari manajer investasi ETF. Tindakan ini disebut dengan arbitrage. 

Demikian sedikit paparan mengenai ETF dan reksa dana indeks. Selamat berinvestasi!

Source : www.parahita.wordpress.com

Friday, November 11, 2011

Matrix Mapping: the easiest and best way to map internal controls

Stop and check!

The most common format for documenting internal controls (i.e. format for "control matrices") takes far too long to write and produces huge documents of little practical use. It's so inefficient that people naturally cut corners, giving a distorted view of controls and risk. I should know; I made the wrong choice myself once. Never again!
If your company has documented its internal controls using some kind of matrices or has to do so in future it is well worth getting the right format in place. This is one of those details that makes a huge difference. If you already have matrices check them and, if they are the wrong style, plan to reformat them as soon as possible. If you have still to start them or have just started a project to write control matrices, stop, check, and restart your project using the right style of matrix. If you don't you will regret it later.

Wrong and right formats

The format most people think of first when asked to map internal controls to risks is the obvious one: a list of risks, with controls written against each risk to show the risk is covered. The layout is some variation on the one below, with other columns added for extra information and cross referencing:
No!
Risk/control objectiveControls
Risk AControls addressing risk A
Risk BControls addressing risk B
Risk CControls addressing risk C
Risk DControls addressing risk D
etcetc
At first glance this seems sensible and there is no obvious objection in principle. However, this is a disastrous choice. If the format your company uses, or plans to use, is like this then read on.
A vastly superior format is to list controls down the left hand column, and risks across the column headings, then mark off where controls address risks within a matrix of small cells, like this:
No!
Control Risk A Risk B Risk C Risk D etc    
Control 1 1 1
Control 2 1 1
Control 3 1 1
Control 4 1 1 1
etc
In this example, Risk A is covered by Control 3 only. Risk B is covered by Control 1 only. Risk C is covered by Controls 1, 2, and 4. And so on.
At first glance this seems unpromising. Surely there will be lots of wasted space? Won't the column headings be difficult to read? What if there are too many risks to fit across the page?
All these are minor issues whose impact can be minimised, and they are insignificant next to the hidden drawbacks of the more obvious approach. The next section looks in more detail at the advantages and disadvantages of each type.

Why this is so much better

The big problem in designing control matrices is that the relation between risks and controls is many-to-many. Each risk is typically addressed by several controls, and each control typically contributes to covering several risks. This cannot be eliminated by choosing a special set of risks or controls, so the format has to support these many-to-many relations conveniently.
The obvious format fails to do this, leaving matrix writers with a choice between repeating the same control wherever it applies, or not repeating it every time, to save space and avoid repetition, and so recording the mapping innaccurately. In practice most people try to fudge the risk descriptions to reduce the repetition problem, then mention each control only once unless that would leave a risk with no controls against it.
The result is a distorted picture that under-states the actual level of control and encourages people to place too much trust in individual controls instead of seeing the control system as have multiple lines of defence. Real control systems are made from multiple layers, but this is almost impossible to see or understand if the wrong matrix layout is used.
There are a number of other factors, summarised here:
Obvious formatCorrect format
Does not conveniently represent many-to-many relations between risks and controls, leading to distortion and repetition of control descriptions.Very easy to show many-to-many relations. Avoids distortion. Controls are described only once, saving space.
Does not provide a list of controls.Provides a list of controls, which can be neatly organised into control types.
Repetition of controls makes it hard to record extra information about controls, while their disorganised distribution through the matrix makes specific controls hard to find quickly.Extra information can be put against each control and the controls can be grouped meaningfully. For example, it is easy to give each manager a list of the controls he/she is responsible for, or produce a list of all control reports needed from a new system, or pull out the rules for segregation of duties.
Hard to automate.Easily automated on a spreadsheet giving dramatically smaller matrices and the ability to sort controls. (See below for a full explanation.)
Does not prompt people to think of controls.Provides ideas for controls.
Almost useless for designing controls.Ideal for designing controls.

Different types of analysis

The most common type of analysis is one that goes through accounting processes (e.g. sales from sales order through to collection of cash) looking at controls that help ensure the accounts are correct, or at least acceptably accurate. In this analysis it is not important whether the company is trading successfully, so long as the accounts accurately reflect performance.
As corporate governance rules have developed in various countries it is these matrices that are usually among the first requirements, directly or indirectly.
However, other types of analysis are also possible. For example:
  • Revenue and cost assurance: Mistakes and system flaws cost businesses dear through incomplete billing and over-payment for goods and services received. Systematic mapping of internal controls is one way to identify where this might be happening and find ways to reduce it.
  • Data conversion: When data is moved from an old computer system to a new one a set of checks is needed to ensure that data is not lost or damaged in the process.
  • Profitable trading: This kind of analysis is concerned with objectives like selling the right goods at a good price and getting paid for them.
  • Compliance with laws and regulations: This can be quite a lengthy analysis, even in overview.
  • Support processes: For example, people in a company's computer department carry out processes that support others. The computer department's processes can also be analysed for error and fraud risks.
  • IT security risks: e-business processes need careful security design and a detailed analysis is needed to confirm that the design is adequate, in principle at least.
  • Business unit overview: This is the level at which top level analyses are usually pitched for compliance with corporate governance regulations such as the UK's Turnbull guidance.

Risk frameworks and control objectives

The ideal framework of risks to use as column headings in a control matrix is one that omits nothing significant within the scope of the analysis and matches conveniently with the effects of the internal controls. If the risks are too broad it is difficult to show coverage accurately. (A control has to be put against the risk but it is not clear that the control only covers part of that particular risk.) On the other hand, if the risks are too fine the matrix becomes large unnecessarily.
If the scope of the analysis is to ensure correct accounting there is a simple and systematic way to generate a framework of risks. Here it is, step by step:
  1. If many accounting cycles are being analysed, decide how to divide up the cycles e.g. "purchases" or "purchases and payables"? It is usually best to go with the longest, most inclusive processes possible. Do not forget to include processes like returns and adjustments that may be infrequent and low value, typically, because these are often weakly controlled areas.
  2. Identify the underlying information processing, excluding internal control steps. Most people find it helps to draw diagrams but with practice this can be omitted. Look for the physical stores of data (e.g. paper forms, computer databases, and computer files), physical transfers of data, data capture steps, and calculations. Exclude internal control steps such as checks and authorisations, which are things done to ensure that the underlying information processing is done correctly. It is not usually necessary to identify every data movement that happens within a single database used by a single computer application, though this can sometimes be helpful. Be sure to list all the data capture steps including things like bad debt provision entry, and obscure reference data edits.
  3. Carve up the underlying processing into steps. Typically there will be data capture steps, data transfer steps, and calculation (including summary) steps. It is not necessary to list the steps in any particular order but it is clearer to work in the order of processing transactions, with reference data done last or interleaved with transaction processing steps. There are choices in selecting the steps but aim to minimise the number of steps while maximising the precision of the mapping.
  4. Apply a standard set of "control objectives" to every step. The traditional control objectives are Completeness, Accuracy, and Validity, to which Uniqueness should be added. (See below for an explanation.) The effect of this is to divide up all possible errors at each step into a small number of standard categories.
Control objectives are just the flip side of risks. If the risk is "Incomplete posting of sales to the sales ledger", then the objective is "Complete posting of sales to the sales ledger." The traditional trio of Completeness, Accuracy, and Validity is based on the idea that accounting processes mainly involve copying information from one place to another, item by item (e.g. sale by sale). "Complete" means that all items that should have been copied across have been. "Accurate" means that all items copied across kept their value or any calculation is correct. "Valid" means no items are inserted without having been copied from the previous stage i.e. nothing has been made up. There is one further error that could occur, which is for an item to be copied across more than once. Traditionally, this is included under either Completeness or Validity, but neither approach is satisfactory as many controls confirm Completeness or Validity without helping on duplication. It is best to introduce a fourth control objective, "Uniqueness."
These control objectives are always with respect to the previous stage of processing, rather than to original truth. For example, controls often ensure that some data has been copied Completely from one database to another, but not that the data are a complete record of the business activities they represent. So, Complete, Accurate, Valid, and Unique always mean compared with the data at the previous step.
Some data flows are "structured" in the sense that they are made of units, each of which is itself composed of smaller units. For example, the data flow may be made of a series of files, each of which is composed of a number of records, each of which is made up of a number of fields of data.
If some of the controls apply to one or more levels but not all it is possible to show this distinction on the control matrix by using multiple Steps (i.e. columns) for the data flow, one for each level of the structure you want to analyse separately.
Debt management is often included as an extra control objective. Strictly this is not directly an issue for financial reporting, provided bad debt provisions are accurate. However, it is comforting to know that doubtful debts are not taken on as this reduces the risk of provisions turning out to be incorrect.
Three other control objectives that might be used are confidentiality, auditability, and non-repudiation. (Non-repudiation relates to electronic records of contracts. Suppose a customer places an order but later claims not to have done. If you provide an ordinary computer record of the order the customer could say you made it up. However, modern cryptographic techniques allow you to retain a record of an order received electronically from a customer in such a way that you could not have made it up, and so the customer cannot "repudiate" the order.)

How to decide if a control applies to a step

A control should be shown as applying to a step if it increases the probability that any of the control objectives have been met for that step. The set of steps a control applies to can be called the "span" of the control. Here are some examples to show the principle:
  • e.g. A hash total is used to check that a file of data has been copied without alteration from one computer to another. (Let's assume the interface is one step in the process break down.) The control should be shown as applying to that interface step only.
  • e.g. A reconciliation is performed between data at one point in the processing and another point, three steps later. The control should be shown as applying to all three steps.
  • e.g. A control is used to ensure that software programs within an application are not changed by accident. This slightly reduces the risk of error and fraud of various types for all steps performed using that application.
  • e.g. A computer checks data to see that it matches a business rule, such as that customer ages should be between 0 and 150 years old. Some mistyped dates of birth will be caught by this check. The assurance applies to all steps prior to this point, because an error at any of these steps could be caught by the check (unless of course exactly the same check is also performed earlier on).

Compressing control matrices using control objectives

If the risk framework uses a small set of standardised control objectives as discussed above it is possible to produce a rigorous but extraordinarily compact matrix.
The control objectives addressed by an internal control are a property of the control, and do not change depending on where it is applied. Therefore, it is enough to provide a column for each step in the processing cycle and show in the matrix which steps each control provides assurance over. To capture the analysis at the more detailed level of control objectives, use the spreadsheet to record the control objectives addressed by each control and then summarise the overall assurance on each step for each control objective.
Here is the basic format to use. The spreadsheet formulae are simple, using nothing more sophisticated than the sumif() function in the summary cells. The new elements of the layout are coloured.
C A V U Step A Step B Step C Step D etc    
Control 1 1 1 1 1
Control 2 1 1 1 1 1
Control 3 1 1 1
Control 4 1 1 1 1 1
etc
Summary
Completeness 0 1 2 0 1
Accuracy 0 1 3 1 2
Validity 0 0 2 1 2
Uniqueness 1 0 0 0 1
In practice it is better to put the summary cells at the top of the page so they can be frozen on screen as you scroll around the matrix. This way you can always see the summarised position as you work.
It is also helpful to set up rows to show the perceived risk of each type of error for each step - think of it as a target for the total coverage score. In the example above the assurance provided by each control for each control objective is shown as all or nothing i.e. 1 or 0. However, controls vary greatly in their effectiveness and this can be shown by using factors other than one.
The difference between the coverage target and the coverage achieved can be calculated by the spreadsheet and on some spreadsheet programs it is possible to colour code the differences automatically using conditional formatting to show where weaknesses lie.
Here is an example showing these techniques:
Targets Step A Step B Step C Step D etc    
Completeness 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.6 1.0
Accuracy 1.0 0.5 0.2 2.0 1.0
Validity 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.2 1.0
Uniqueness 0.5 1.0 1.0 2.0 1.5
Differences Step A Step B Step C Step D etc    
Completeness -0.5 -0.5 0.5 -0.6 -0.8
Accuracy -1.0 0.5 2.8 -1.0 1.0
Validity -1.0 -1.0 0.6 -0.1 -0.2
Uniqueness 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0
C A V U Step A Step B Step C Step D etc    
Control 1 0.5 1.0 1 1
Control 2 0.2 1.0 0.7 1 1
Control 3 0.5 1 1
Control 4 1.0 0.1 1 1 1
etc
In this example there are obviously some problems with the coverage. There are many gaps but also some over-controlled steps where it may be possible to cut out some work and complexity from the controls.
These numbers are all subjective judgements, but this is still better than unquantified judgement. In some cases it may be possible to support judgements with data and calculations based on data, but this is unlikely to be worthwhile except with the most costly processes.
One problem with this technique is to calibrate the targets correctly. You can get a feel for targets by scoring actual controls on a process that is thought to be well controlled and where performance has been good (i.e. errors known and tolerably low). These scores provide a guide for setting targets on other processes.
This kind of sophistication is helpful if you can do it but not essential. Even without targets and coverage factors the spreadsheet analysis is still far more precise than it would be with the conventional approach.
Another enhancement to the basic spreadsheet is to add another worksheet to show a coloured version of the original matrix, for each control objective individually. This can be done using a sheet for each control objective or a single sheet with a cell into which you type the one letter abbreviation of the objective whose analysis is to be displayed.

Helpful control frameworks

The ideal control framework groups all possible controls into a set of layers, or lines of defence, on the basis of the nature of the control. By finding or designing controls under each category it should be possible to produce a complete system covering all relevant levels of management control. If it is difficult to design effective controls at one level it should be easy to see the other levels at which compensating strength can be designed.
It is pointless to try to group controls according to the control objectives they address, though many people do this, or are taught to.
Here's the multi-layer model I like and recommend for controlling financial cycles, starting at the top:
  • Management monitoring
    • Process monitoring
      • Monitor past effectiveness of the controls and take corrective action, for example by tracking error rates, transactions via exception streams, and lost revenue and changing the process to make it inherently more reliable, or adding checks.
      • Monitor future events and adapt the process and its controls in good time, for example through capacity planning, looking ahead for high risk changes and spreading them out, and checking for forthcoming contract changes that will be difficult and time consuming to implement.
      • Monitor the controls to ensure they are operating, for example through audit work, reviewing reports of control performance, and control self assessment. Where reliance is placed on exception reporting no news is good news - or the controls have stopped operating. This is particularly important for controls that aim to cover risks that rarely occur.
    • Business monitoring
    • Reporting trading performance through information derived through the process itself. In a business unit there may be many business processes, each with monitoring as above, each providing information about trading performance. This is relevant to ensuring financial information is correct because scrutiny of trading performance can identify unexpected numbers, that may then be incorrect.
  • Control activities
    • Protect the process from interference, using physical and software security measures.
    • Make the process recoverable, for example through data backups, disaster recovery planning, and building resilience and recoverability into every interface.
    • Make the process inherently reliable, for example, by assuring software quality, testing the usability of software which interacts with humans, and using reliable hardware.
    • Put checks on data and processing in place, with associated corrective action, to detect process errors, interference with the process such as fraud, and attempts to pass fraud through the process.
    • Put audit trails in place, so that auditors can gain assurance of correct functioning, and so that errors can be investigated and corrected easily.
    Of course other control frameworks can be used, but whatever framework you use it is a good idea to use headings and sub-headings at least to organise the list of controls in the control matrix.
    Controls can be given a code so that if they get out of order they can be sorted back into the original order of the control framework.
    This is particularly useful if you build a database of controls and control types. By selecting the controls that apply to a particular process you can sort them up into the control matrix area. For example, if you go for the WebTrust seal of approval there is quite detailed guidance about the controls expected so these can be used as a starting point in any analysis under WebTrust.
    Here is an example illustrating control framework headings and sort codes. Note that only some of the controls are shown, in order to keep the example short and the new elements are yellow.
    Sort C A V U Step A Step B Step C Step D etc    
    MONITORING A
    BUSINESS MONITORING AA
    Weekly margin analysis and meeting AA1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
    PROCESS MONITORING AB
    Downtime analysis and meeting AB1 1 1 1 1 1 1
    Quality review statistics AB2 1 1
    End-to-end reconciliation summary AB3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
    CONTROL ACTIVITIES C
    PROTECTION CA
    Building security guards and alarms CA1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
    Computer room security CA2 1 1 1 1 1 1
    Operating system level passwords CA3 1 1 1 1 1 1
    RECOVERY CONTROLS CB
    Nightly backups of main servers CB1 1 1 1 1 1
    etc
    Another refinement is to add a summary worksheet that computes the coverage achieved from each type of control within the control framework. This could be useful if you have a high level design for the controls that specifies certain levels of control from each type of control. High level designs are extremely useful but beyond the scope of this paper.

    Adding information about controls

    If the control matrices are on spreadsheet and the controls are listed vertically as recommended it is easy to add columns to capture useful information about each control (in addition to its profile of coverage of control objectives). This information can be sorted and reported to meet various needs. But what information is useful? Here are some suggestions:
    • Design and implementation information: e.g. name of developer, whether software needs to be written, whether the control already exists or not. Obviously, this is relevant if controls are still being developed.
    • Manager responsible for operation of the control: Useful for various review and confirmation exercises. Processes almost always cut across departments but people naturally want to know what they are responsible for.
    • Frequency of operation of the control: This can sometimes be useful where there is a choice and you want to make the most economic set of decisions about frequencies.
    If you are designing controls within a project to implement a new system, or set of systems, expect to be asked to specify requirements for software (e.g. access controls, reports, interface checks) months before other decisions about control have to be taken, and probably a bit before you are ready.
    The format recommended in this paper was developed from my experiences in this kind of project. It makes it easier to identify controls with an implication for software, while high level design of control systems makes it possible to respond to even the most demanding software developers (though this is outside the scope of this paper). The technique of marking off controls against risks makes it easier to make changes to the matrices as the software and process people change their minds about how things will work, which is another major practical advantage.

    Formatting to print

    If you've been paying attention up to this point you will have realised that most control matrix spreadsheets will not fit onto one sheet of paper. Compared to the more obvious format, the format recommended is far more compact, but it can be difficult to fit to the width of a page even in landscape format.
    The following techniques reduce the problem:
    • Stay electronic: Avoid hardcopy altogether if possible. You can get more text on a spreadsheet if you use comments for extended descriptions and comments. These cannot be printed at all.
    • Turn the risks through 90 degrees: This allows the columns to be narrower.
    • Hide columns: Hide any columns not needed by the person who wants the hardcopy.
    • Set column and row headings so every page has them: Possible on some spreadsheet programs. If not, split the matrix by splitting the set of risks/steps.

    Finally

    Mapping internal controls to risks is something more and more companies are expected to do. Every year, countless people waste countless hours doing it in inefficient and inaccurate ways. This paper explains a way to do the work more easily, and yet also produce a more useful and accurate result.
 Source: http://www.internalcontrolsdesign.co.uk

Monday, July 11, 2011

Debt Elimination: Managing It Through Turbulent Times

 
Debt is a tool that must be smartly managed. Getting on top of it is the single most important financial step you can take. Here's how to do it.

The Business Cycle

To explore the fundamentals behind the historic, destructive forces wreaking havoc upon individuals, businesses and governments alike, one must understand the term business cycle. The business cycle is a characterization of the direction of economic activity within a broader economy. The five stages are as follows: expansion, peak, recession, trough, and recovery. According to Investopedia.com, the average post-World War II expansion has lasted 50 months, while the average contraction has been just eleven months.
During expansions, individuals, governments and businesses typically finance growth through the acquisition of significant amounts of additional debt. During contractions, the same parties attempt to reduce debt in order to mitigate uncertain or declining revenues. Needless to say, the former is far easier to accomplish than the later.

The Root Causes

During the roughly ten-year "greed is good" era between 1996-2006, the general world economy experienced a long, broad-based expansion, interrupted only briefly by the mild recession of 2002-03. The short recession was combated in the United States by the Federal Reserve reducing the overnight Fed funds rate six times in the 21 months following the September 11, 2001 attacks. The lowering of short-term rates triggered a corresponding reduction in mortgage rates, which in conjunction with low unemployment, reduced underwriting standards by lenders and other factors, fueled a real estate boom.
Starting in July, 2004 and lasting for the next two years, the Fed starting ratcheting up interest rates in an effort to thwart inflationary pressures and put a damper on excessive growth. However, with sub-prime lending in its heyday, the effort only served to invert the yield curve, as short-term rates were pushed higher than long-term rates, held low due to voracious demand. Real estate investment and speculation therefor continued nearly unabated until 2007 when the market finally peaked, and shortly thereafter, crashed.

The Net Result

The cratering of both the real estate market and the broader economy as a whole over the past three years has caused trillions of dollars of wealth to evaporate from financial statements. The global impacts will last for years to come, as asset values have seriously degraded while the debt has remained relatively constant. As a result, many borrowers are struggling to pay debts correlating with assets worth substantially less than they once were.

Psychology

First off, it's important to acknowledge the cyclicity of the economy and, as such, recognize the likelihood that if the assets in question have depreciated in value due to the global economy, they will eventually return at least some of their lost equity over time as the markets heal. Secondly, understand that although equity carries important psychological value, until it is leveraged or cashed in, it has no immediate financial value. Thirdly, if income remains constant, the ability to service the debt should be unimpeded. Lastly, realize that the obligor (you) have an absolute, dollar-for-dollar ability to create equity by doing nothing more than taking heed of your own personal cash flows.

Understanding Your Personal Cash Flows

It is vitally important that you understand your own cash flows — now. You do not need a finance degree to become keenly aware of your own situation. If you are not a spreadsheet-maker and if so desired, you can literally go low-tech by grabbing a pencil and paper.
List your monthly take-home income (A) and your monthly debt payments (B). Include only actual debt payments (such as credit cards, mortgage and car payments), not monthly operating expenses like food or electricity. Divide the debt payments by your take-home income. Ideally and as a benchmark, that ratio should be less than 40% of your take-home pay.
Go through the remainder of your non-debt expenses, which would include everything else: food, clothing, standard monthly bills, discretionary expenditures and the like. If you believe there are no items that would skew them artificially higher or lower, take a six-month average of what they have been historically (C) and throw that figure below the listed debt payments. If you can't track that far back, use at least a three-month average. Feel free to remove one-time expenditures that you are certain will not recur from your listed totals, but be very careful about doing so, as life throws plenty of curve balls and it is safer to assume there will be others down the line.
Now, subtract debt payments (B) plus all other expenses (C) from income (A). Is the number positive or negative?

If Positive

If the figure is positive, your personal cash flow should be generally in balance. More importantly, the positive number is a figure you can reasonably rely upon to put into savings or investments and/or against your debt, whether it be credit card balances, your car loan, a home equity line of credit or your mortgage. Without having to belt-tighten, you have the flexibility to create equity every month. Be aware that using an average as suggested above does not allow for monthly variances, so take that into account when you do your math.
Decide on a ratio that you believe is reasonable (50/50 is a good starting point) and follow through aggressively. Take half of the positive figure and put into savings or investments, and apply the other half as a principal reduction against one or more of your debts. Both will create dollar-for-dollar equity on your financial statement, as you will be left with an asset (cash) and/or reduced liabilities to show for the proactive application of your positive cash flow. Note: although paying higher-rate debts first makes investment sense, applying the extra against debts that will be retired soonest makes the most cash flow sense, as that creates permanent positive benefits. My recommendation is to do the latter.

If Negative

Obviously, this is a thornier issue, as it means you do not have sufficient income to cover your debts and monthly expenses. However, you now have a gauge as to how far behind you are going every month. In all likelihood, this is approximately how much your savings are being depleted or how much your debt is increasing on a monthly basis to cover the negative portion of your cash flow. Consider the following:
  • Reduce your discretionary expenses every month by that amount, and preferably more. Typical discretionary items to target include dining out, "sin" expenses like beer, cigarettes, and other non-necessities, and recreational activities.
  • Increase your income every month. In these times, this is a difficult solution, but if possible — whether it be a spouse going to work, obtaining or increasing additional income in other ways (overtime, a second job, changing your employment) — you can eliminate the negative portion of your cash flow through increased income.
  • Refinance higher-payment obligations with a lower-payment option. Be careful here. You're trying to create equity, not trade debt. However, if you're in the negative, it is essential that you stop the bleeding.
  • Ask family for assistance. Be very careful with this option. If utilized, borrow just enough to eliminate sufficient debt to get into the positive, and pay them back as soon as possible (no doubt they'll want that!)
As with the positive cash flow strategy above, your goal is to create equity. Stemming the negative tide will stop the monthly net outflow further eroding your net worth beyond what economic forces are already doing to your assets. You cannot control the latter, but you can control the former. Moreover, beyond just leveling off and to the extent possible, take one or more of these steps to create positive cash flow. Once accomplished, you can apply the excess into savings or against debt as suggested above to create equity on your financial statement on a monthly basis.

Summary

It's not too late to fix your personal finances. To repair the damage, you need to be aware of what happened, why it happened, and the steps you need to take to solve the problem. Once you've taken stock of your own financial situation, discipline yourself to create positive personal cash flow and begin applying the excess as principal reductions against debt, into savings, or a combination of the two, every single month. Think of it as another bill that must be paid, but now you're paying yourself.
Before long, you'll find that your personal finances are under firm control and you're beginning to create equity. The process may be slow, but it will add up over time and it's wholly within your control — you're in charge. And all you needed was a pencil and paper along with a bit of self-discipline. That's not too much to ask of your favorite boss.

Sources:

  • Investopedia.com
  • WSJ.com
  • WashingtonPost.com
  • Economist.com
  • Budgeting Suite 101

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Framework dalam Cost/Benefit Analysis


Dalam investasi pastilah kita semua sudah menyadari bahwa manfaat (benefit) yang kita terima harus lebih besar dibandingkan semua pengeluaran (cost) yang dikeluarkan, namun tidak semua tahu atau mengerti bagaimana analisis untuk hal tersebut dilakukan. Berikut langkah-langkah dalam melakukan analisis cost-benefit:
  1. Pahami status quo dari cost/ biaya: Ketahui apakah benefit yang akan diterima lebih besar dibandingkan opportunity cost -nya (biaya atas kesempatan yang hilang karena dana kita terikat dalam investasi tersebut)  . Hal ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui apakah benefit dari investasi ini layak atau tidak, jangan sampai terjadi kita investasi namun benefit yang kita dari investasi tersebut lebih kecil dibandingkan jika kita menabung/ deposito uang kita di bank (suku bunga bank Indonesia seringjkali dijadikan acuan sebagai tolok ukur persentase minimal return / benefit dari investasi kita).
  2. Identifikasi berbagai biaya: Selain kita ketahui berbagai biaya yang diinformasikan secara terbuka dari pihak yang menawarkan investasi, kita juga harus mengidentifikasi berbagai kemungkinan kenaikan biaya di masa yang akan datang seiring dengan kenaikan tingkat inflasi (seringkali ini yang jadi alasan untuk menaikkan biaya) dan juga berbagai kemungkinan biaya baru yang sewaktu-waktu muncul akibat :
    1. Terkadang tidak semua jenis biaya yang terjadi di masa yang akan datang diinformasikan oleh pihak yang menawarkan investasi
    2. Terjadinya berbagai peristiwa yang tidak bisa diprediksi seperti: bencana alam, perang, krisis ekonomi, dsb
  3. Identifikasi berbagai benefit dari investasi : ketahuilah berbagai benefit yang akan /bisa muncul dari  investasi di masa yang akan datang.
  4. Ketahuilah berapa besar penghematan biaya yang terjadi jika kita memutuskan berinvestasi dalam satu jenis investasi.  What can u stop doing if you make this investment?
  5. Buatlah timeline schedule/cash flow projection dari berbagai biaya dan pendapatan yang akan terjadi: petakan berbagai biaya dan pendapatan yang akan terjadi dan berapa jumlahnya untuk masing-masing periode investasi (bulanan, tahunan)
  6. Evaluasi berbagai biaya dan benefit yang tidak dapat dihitung/dikuantifikasi: identifikasilah berbagai benefit yang tak berwujud seperti kenaikan citra credit rating kita di mata perbankan, memperkuat posisi tawar kita terhadap pihak lain seperti distributor, kompetitor atau lainnya demikian juga dengan biaya-biaya yg tidak dapat dikuantifikasi yang muncul.

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Framework, Definisi, Sejarah, dan Karakteristik Reksadana

Reksadana adalah wadah dan pola pengelolaan dana / modal bagi sekumpulan investor untuk berinvestasi dalam instrumen – instrumen investasi yang tersedia dipasar dengan cara membeli unit penyertaan reksadana. Dana ini kemudian dikelola oleh manajer investasi (MI)

Ke dalam portofolio investasi, baik berupa saham, obligasi, pasar uang, ataupun efek / sekuriti lainnya. Menurut undang – undang pasar modal no. 8 tahun 1995 pasal 1 ayat 27: reksadana adalah wadah yang dipergunakan untuk menghimpun dalam portofolio efek oleh manajer investasi. Dari kedua definisi diatas, terdapat 3 unsur penting dalam pengertiaan reksadana yaitu:

1. Adanya kumpulan dana masyarakat, baik individu maupun institusi

2. Investasi bersama dalam bentuk suatu portofolio efek yang telah terdiversifikasi

3. Manajer investasi dipercaya sebagai pengelola dana milik masyarakat investor

Pada reksadana manajemen investasi mengelola dana – dana yang ditempatkannya pada saat surat berharga dan merealisasikan keuntungan ataupun kerugian dan menerima dividen atau bunga yang dibukukannya ke dalam “Nilai Aktiva Bersih” (NAB) reksadana tersebut.

Kekayaan reksadana yang dikelola oleh manajer investasi tersebut wajib untuk disimpan pada bank kustodian inilah yang akan bertindak sebagai tempat penitipan kolektif dan administrator.


Sejarah Reksadana

Reksadana yang pertama kali bernama Massachusetts Investors Trust yang diterbitkan tanggal 21 Maret 1924, yang hanya dalam waktu setahun telah memiliki sebanyak 200 investor reksadana dengan total aset senilai US$ 392.000. Pada tahun 1929 sewaktu bursa saham jatuh maka pertumbuhan industri reksadana ini menjadi melambat. Menanggapi jatuhnya bursa maka Kongres Amerika mengeluarkan Undang-undang Surat Berharga 1933 (Securities Act of 1933) dan Undang-undang Bursa Saham 1934 (Securities Exchange Act of 1934). Berdasarkan peraturan tersebut maka reksadana wajib didaftarkan pada Securities and Exchange Commission atau biasa disebut SEC yaitu sebuah komisi di Amerika yang menangani perdagangan surat berharga dan pasar modal. Selain itu pula, penerbit reksadana wajib untuk menyediakan prospektus yang memuat informasi guna keterbukaan informasi reksadana, juga termasuk surat berharga yang menjadi objek kelolaan, informasi mengenai manajer investasi yang menerbitkan reksadana. SEC juga terlibat dalam perancangan Undang-undang Perusahaan Investasi tahun 1940 yang menjadi acuan bagi ketentuan-ketentuan yang wajib dipenuhi untuk setiap pendaftaran reksadana hingga hari ini. Dengan pulihnya kepercayaan pasar terhadap bursa saham, reksadana mulai tumbuh dan berkembang. Hingga akhir tahun 1960 diperkirakan telah ada sekitar 270 reksadana dengan dana kelolaan sebesar 48 triliun US Dollar. Reksadana indeks pertama kali diperkenalkan pada tahun 1976 oleh John Bogle dengan nama First Index Investment Trust, yang sekarang bernama Vanguard 500 Index Fund yang merupakan reksadana dengan dana kelolaan terbesar yang mencapai 100 triliun US Dollar. Salah satu kontributor terbesar dari pertumbuhan reksadana di Amerika yaitu dengan adanya ketentuan mengenai rekening pensiun perorangan (individual retirement account – IRA), yang menambahkan ketentuan kedalam Internal Revenue Code( peraturan perpajakan di Amerika) yang mengizinkan perorangan (termasuk mereka yang sudah memiliki program pensiun perusahaan) untuk menyisihkan sebesar 4.000 US $ setahun.

Jenis – Jenis Reksadana

1. Reksadana Pasar Uang:

Reksa Dana yang menempatkan 100% dananya, dalam instrumen pasar uang, seperti deposito, SBI (Sertifikat Bank Indonesia), atau obligasi (surat utang yang diterbitkan oleh perusahaan atau Pemerintah) yang memiliki jatuh tempo kurang dari 1 tahun.

2. Reksadana Dana Tetap:

Reksa Dana yang menempatkan minimum 80% dari dananya dalam instrumen obligasi.

3. Reksa Dana Campuran:

Reksa Dana yang menempatkan dananya, dalam instrumen pasar uang atau obligasi, atau saham dengan komposisi yang fleksibel.

4. Reksa Dana Saham:

Reksa Dana yang menempatkan minimum 80% dari dananya dalam instrumen saham.

Reksa Dana Terproteksi:

Reksa Dana yang menempatkan sebagian besar dananya dalam instrumen obligasi sedemikian rupa dapat memberikan perlindungan atas nilai awal investasi pada saat jatuh temponya.

Manfaat Reksadana

Reksa Dana memiliki beberapa manfaat yang menjadikannya sebagai salah satu alternatif investasi yang menarik antara lain:

1. Dikelola oleh manajemen profesional

Pengelolaan portofolio suatu Reksa Dana dilaksanakan oleh Manajer Investasi yang memang mengkhususkan keahliannya dalam hal pengelolaan dana. Peran Manajer Investasi sangat penting mengingat Pemodal individu pada umumnya mempunyai keterbatasan waktu, sehingga tidak dapat melakukan riset secara langsung dalam menganalisa harga efek serta mengakses informasi ke pasar modal.

2. Diversifikasi investasi

Diversifikasi atau penyebaran investasi yang terwujud dalam portofolio akan mengurangi risiko (tetapi tidak dapat menghilangkan), karena dana atau kekayaan Reksa Dana diinvestasikan pada berbagai jenis efek sehingga risikonya pun juga tersebar. Dengan kata lain, risikonya tidak sebesar risiko bila seorang membeli satu atau dua jenis saham atau efek secara individu.

3. Transparansi informasi

Reksa Dana wajib memberikan informasi atas perkembangan portofolionya dan biayanya secara kontinyu sehingga pemegang Unit Penyertaan dapat memantau keuntungannya, biaya, dan risiko setiap saat.Pengelola Reksa Dana wajib mengumumkan Nilai Aktiva Bersih (NAB) nya setiap hari di surat kabar serta menerbitkan laporan keuangan tengah tahunan dan tahunan serta prospektus secara teratur sehingga Investor dapat memonitor perkembangan investasinya secara rutin.

4. Likuiditas yang tinggi

Agar investasi yang dilakukan berhasil, setiap instrumen investasi harus mempunyai tingkat likuiditas yang cukup tinggi. Dengan demikian, Pemodal dapat mencairkan kembali Unit Penyertaannya setiap saat sesuai ketetapan yang dibuat masing-masing Reksadana sehingga memudahkan investor mengelola kasnya. Reksadana terbuka wajib membeli kembali Unit Penyertaannya sehingga sifatnya sangat likuid.

5. Biaya Rendah

Karena reksadana merupakan kumpulan dana dari banyak pemodal dan kemudian dikelola secara profesional, maka sejalan dengan besarnya kemampuan untuk melakukan investasi tersebut akan menghasilkan pula efisiensi biaya transaksi.

Biaya transaksi akan menjadi lebih rendah dibandingkan apabila Investor individu melakukan transaksi sendiri di bursa.

Karakteristik Reksadana
· Pasar Uang

1. Relatif lebih aman dibandingkan jenis reksa dana lainnya.

2. Bersifat likuid atau mudah dicairkan.

3. Investasi jangka pendek.

4. Mempunyai potensi keuntungan sedikit lebih tinggi dari deposito.

· Pendapatan Tetap

1. Mempunyai potensi keuntungan lebih tinggi dari

reksa dana pasar uang.

2. Investasi jangka menengah.

· Campuran

1. Mempunyai potensi keuntungan yang cukup

tinggi.

2. Investasi jangka menengah sampai panjang.

· Saham

1. Mempunyai potensi keuntungan paling tinggi,

namun mempunyai risiko yang lebih tinggi

dibanding reksa dana lainnya.

2. Investasi jangka panjang.

· Terproteksi

1. Perlindungan 100% pada nilai pokok investasi,

jika dicairkan sesuai dengan jangka waktu yang

ditentukan.

2. Mempunyai potensi keuntungan sebesar tingkat

bunga portfolio obligasi.

Keuntungan Reksa Dana

Biaya relatif rendah.
Cocok untuk pemodal pemula dan investor dengan kemampuan finansial yang tidak terlalu besar, serta tidak terlalu menguasai teknik – teknik portofolio.
Dikelola oleh Manajer Investasi yang profesional.

Risiko Investasi Reksa Dana

Untuk melakukan investasi Reksa Dana, Investor harus mengenal jenis risiko yang berpotensi timbul apabila membeli Reksadana.

1. Risiko menurunnya NAB (Nilai Aktiva Bersih) Unit Penyertaan

Penurunan ini disebabkan oleh harga pasar dari instrumen investasi yang dimasukkan dalam portofolio Reksadana tersebut mengalami penurunan dibandingkan dari harga pembelian awal. Penyebab penurunan harga pasar portofolio investasi Reksadana bisa disebabkan oleh banyak hal, di antaranya akibat kinerja bursa saham yang memburuk, terjadinya kinerja emiten yang memburuk, situasi politik dan ekonomi yang tidak menentu, dan masih banyak penyebab fundamental lainnya.

2. Risiko Likuiditas

Potensi risiko likuiditas ini bisa saja terjadi apabila pemegang Unit Penyertaan reksadana pada salah satu Manajer Investasi tertentu ternyata melakukan penarikkan dana dalam jumlah yang besar pada hari dan waktu yang sama. Istilahnya, Manajer Investasi tersebut mengalami rush (penarikan dana secara besar-besaran) atas Unit Penyertaan reksadana. Hal ini dapat terjadi apabila ada faktor negatif yang luar biasa sehingga mempengaruhi investor reksadana untuk melakukan penjualan kembali Unit Penyertaan reksadana tersebut. Faktor luar biasa tersebut di antaranya berupa situasi politik dan ekonomi yang memburuk, terjadinya penutupan atau kebangkrutan beberapa emiten publik yang saham atau obligasinya menjadi portofolio Reksadana tersebut, serta dilikuidasinya perusahaan Manajer Investasi sebagai pengelola Reksadana tersebut.

3. Risiko Pasar

Risiko Pasar adalah situasi ketika harga instrumen investasi mengalami penurunan yang disebabkan oleh menurunnya kinerja pasar saham atau pasar obligasi secara drastis. Istilah lainnya adalah pasar sedang mengalami kondisi bearish, yaitu harga-harga saham atau instrumen investasi lainnya mengalami penurunan harga yang sangat drastis. Risiko pasar yang terjadi secara tidak langsung akan mengakibatkan NAB (Nilai Aktiva Bersih) yang ada pada Unit Penyertaan Reksadana akan mengalami penurunan juga. Oleh karena itu, apabila ingin membeli jenis Reksadana tertentu, Investor harus bisa memperhatikan tren pasar dari instrumen portofolio Reksadana itu sendiri.

4. Risiko Default

Risiko Default terjadi jika pihak Manajer Investasi tersebut membeli obligasi milik emiten yang mengalami kesulitan keuangan padahal sebelumnya kinerja keuangan perusahaan tersebut masih baik-baik saja sehingga pihak emiten tersebut terpaksa tidak membayar kewajibannya. Risiko ini hendaknya dihindari dengan cara memilih Manajer Investasi yang menerapkan strategi pembelian portofolio investasi secara ketat.

Hal-Hal Yang Perlu Diperhatikan

  1. Reksa Dana bukan merupakan produk bank, sehingga tidak dijamin oleh bank, serta tidak termasuk dalam cakupan objek program penjaminan pemerintah atau penjaminan simpanan.
  2. Semakin tinggi potensi keuntungan yang dapat Anda raih, semakin besar pula risiko hilangnya nilai investasi Anda.
  3. Pastikan memperoleh Bukti Kepemilikan Unit Penyertaan.
  4. Pastikan memiliki hak untuk menjual kembali sebagian atau seluruh Unit Penyertaannya, kepada Manajer Investasi.
  5. Dapatkan laporan posisi Nilai Aktiva Bersih dari Unit Penyertaan dan laporan tahunan posisi penyertaan serta pembaharuan prospektus.
  6. Ketahui dan pahami rencana investasi portfolio yang akan ditanam dari produk Reksa Dana baik potensi hasil dan risiko dengan membaca prospektus secara cermat.
  7. Pahami tujuan rencana keuangan pribadi dan pemilihan produk sesuai dengan profil risiko.
  8. Tetap menyediakan dana yang cukup dan menabung secara teratur untuk mengantisipasi timbulnya risiko investasi.
  9. Pilih jangka waktu investasi yang sesuai dengan rencana keuangan Anda dan jangan mudah terpengaruh pendapat orang lain, serta berpikir dan bertindak realistis dalam berinvestasi.
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